A municipality plans to host both industrial hydrogen production and small-scale crayfish farming. The two activities interact across water systems, biodiversity, economic conditions, and social values, but no single discipline covers the full picture. Cumulative effects are poorly understood, and decisions made in isolation risk creating conflicts that become visible only after they are difficult to reverse.
ModelThink AB leads the systems analysis of cumulative effects within VOK. The work integrates findings from hydrology, ecology, economics, and social science into a coherent system-level model that maps how industrial development and small-scale farming interact over time.
Using causal loop diagramming, participatory modelling, and quantitative system dynamics, the work identifies structural risks, leverage points, uncertainties, critical decision points, and alternative development pathways, at the scale of the municipality and its surrounding systems.
The central output is a planning support tool that enables the municipality to test different development sequences, assess risks and trade-offs, and make decisions that preserve the ecological, cultural, recreational, and economic values of the area, including how industrial development and small-scale farming can coexist sustainably.