About

Dr Hördur V. Haraldsson

Founder and lead expert, ModelThink AB. More than 25 years of applied system dynamics across Swedish, European, and international environmental policy contexts.

The Company

About ModelThink AB

ModelThink AB is a Swedish expert organisation specialising in system dynamics and systems analysis for complex environmental and policy challenges. We work at the intersection of research and practice, applying qualitative and quantitative modelling methods to problems where conventional analysis is not sufficient.

The company operates through a lean founder-led structure and collaborates with academic and institutional partners when the assignment requires it. Current partners include MIUN and a network of researchers and practitioners across Swedish and European environmental governance.

ModelThink AB is registered in Sweden. Org. no. 559504-0030.

The Founder

Background & Experience

Dr Hördur V. Haraldsson's work focuses on one recurring challenge: complex problems that resist conventional analysis because their structure is not visible, their causes are not where the symptoms appear, and their dynamics play out over time scales that planning processes rarely account for.

His speciality is finding the right entry point into that structure, defining the right question, and building shared understanding with the people who have to act on it.

His work combines causal loop diagramming, simulation modelling, integrated assessment, scenario analysis, backcasting, and strategic foresight to support decision-making in complex environmental, policy, and planning systems.

Education

PhD, System Dynamics Theory (Chemical Engineering), Lund University, 2005
MSc Environmental Science, Sweden, 1998
BSc Geology, Iceland

Swedish Environmental Protection Agency · 16 years

Senior expert in integrated environmental assessment and policy analysis. Development of indexed causal loop diagram modelling for the Swedish environmental objectives. Collaboration with IIASA on mediated policy modelling for wildlife and ecosystem services.

European Environment Agency · 2021–2024

Seconded National Expert for SOER 2025. Applied systems thinking, system dynamics, and foresight to European State of the Environment Reporting, including long-term what-if pathway analysis and Farm to Fork policy scenario assessment.

Horizon 2020, STAR-ProBio

Core methodological contributor applying dynamic policy scenario analysis to the bioeconomy and bio-based products in cross-European forward-looking settings.

AI & Machine Learning

Contributed to the use of machine learning and AI to analyse complex data and connect empirical patterns with higher-level system drivers, structural relationships, and decision-relevant dynamics.

ModelThink AB · 2025–

Founder and lead expert. Active projects: CHEMSYS, SOURCE, VOK.

Want to work together?

We work with municipalities, research institutions, government agencies, and European bodies on complex environmental challenges.

Get in touch